The Pedowitz Group Blog

The Lead Scoring Lie: Your 100-Point Model Can't Predict a 2-Point Buyer

Written by Jeff Pedowitz | Sep 11, 2025 4:00:00 AM

Revenue Marketing Index 2025

You've Built a Crystal Ball That Only Shows the Past

Your lead scored 97 points. Perfect demographic fit. Ideal firmographic profile. High engagement score. Downloaded  everything. Attended every webinar. Sales called them 14 times. Result? They were never buying. Meanwhile, the 12-point lead you ignored just signed a 7-figure deal with your competitor.

 

Welcome to the lead scoring theater—where marketing builds elaborate models to predict something that can't be modeled: human buying behavior.

You've assigned points to everything. Job title: 10 points. Company size: 15 points. Email open: 5 points. Webinar attendance: 20 points. You've created a mathematical model so complex it would make a data scientist weep. And it's completely, utterly, catastrophically wrong.

74%

 

of Revenue Marketing leaders have abandoned traditional lead scoring for actual buying signals—while others keep perfecting models that don't work.

Source: Revenue Marketing Index 2025

The Lead Scoring Delusion

Here's what your lead scoring model actually measures:

What You Think You're Measuring vs. What You're Actually Measuring

Intent to Buy → Boredom at Work

That person who downloaded 10 whitepapers? They're not evaluating solutions. They're avoiding their actual job.

Budget Authority → Job Title Inflation

"Vice President" doesn't mean what it used to. Half your "decision makers" can't approve a coffee purchase.

Engagement → Procrastination

Webinar attendance during work hours? That's not interest. That's a meeting they're avoiding.

Fit → Wishful Thinking

They match your ICP perfectly! Except for the minor detail that they have no problem to solve.

Activity → Anxiety

Multiple page visits? That's not research. That's someone desperately trying to understand what you actually do.

Your lead scoring model is a random number generator with extra steps

The Tale of Two Scoring Models

Traditional Scoring
(80% of Companies)

  • +10 points: Downloaded eBook
  • +15 points: Director or above
  • +20 points: Attended webinar
  • +5 points: Opened email
  • +25 points: Visited pricing page
  • +10 points: Right industry
  • +15 points: Company size match
  • +5 points: Repeat website visit
Accuracy: Random Chance

Buying Signal Focus
(20% Leaders)

  • ✓ Multiple stakeholders from same company
  • ✓ Specific pain point questions
  • ✓ Competitor comparison research
  • ✓ Business case downloads
  • ✓ Implementation timeline questions
  • ✓ Reference requests
  • ✓ Pricing configuration discussions
  • ✓ Legal/security documentation review
Accuracy: Actually Predictive

The 7 Lead Scoring Fantasies Destroying Your Pipeline

Fantasy #1: Demographics = Buying Power

A "VP of Innovation" at a Fortune 500 scores high. They have zero budget and no influence. A "Manager" at a startup scores low. They're the founder's right hand with signing authority.

Fantasy #2: Activity = Interest

Downloads don't mean interest. They mean someone's building a research folder they'll never open. Real buyers call you. Tire kickers collect PDFs.

Fantasy #3: Engagement = Intent

Your highest engaged leads are often students, competitors, and consultants doing market research. Your lowest engaged leads? Actual buyers who already know what they want.

Fantasy #4: Recency = Urgency

Just because someone engaged yesterday doesn't mean they're buying today. Some buyers research for months then go dark. Others buy within hours of first contact.

Fantasy #5: Score Threshold = Sales Readiness

Your 70-point threshold for "sales-ready" is arbitrary. You're sending garbage to sales at 71 points and ignoring gold at 69.

Fantasy #6: More Data = Better Prediction

You've added 47 scoring criteria. Now you're precisely wrong instead of approximately right. Complexity doesn't equal accuracy.

Fantasy #7: The Model Is Scientific

Your scoring model is based on opinions disguised as data. "CMO thinks webinars are worth 20 points" isn't science. It's guessing with spreadsheets.

 

Every scoring fantasy creates pipeline friction

What Actually Predicts Buying (Hint: It's Not Points)

Real Buying Signals Revenue Leaders Track

The Committee Forms

Multiple people from the same company suddenly appear. That's not coincidence. That's a buying committee forming.

The Problem Statement

They describe a specific problem, with specific consequences, and specific timeline pressure. That's pain, not curiosity.

The Comparison Shopping

They're asking about you vs. specific competitors. They're not exploring. They're deciding.

The Business Case Building

ROI calculators, business case templates, implementation guides. They're building internal buy-in.

The Obstacle Identification

"What about security?" "How does implementation work?" "What if...?" They're solving for objections.

The Hidden Cost of Bad Lead Scoring

What Your Scoring Model Actually Costs You

Sales Trust: Gone

After the 50th "hot lead" that wasn't, sales stops believing marketing. They work their own leads and ignore yours.

Real Buyers: Ignored

While you chase high-scoring phantoms, actual buyers with "low scores" go to competitors who respond.

Speed: Destroyed

Buyers wait while leads accumulate points. By the time they're "sales-ready," they've already bought elsewhere.

Resources: Wasted

Sales chases false positives. Marketing nurtures false negatives. Everyone's busy. Nobody's selling.

Bad lead scoring doesn't just miss opportunities. It creates anti-pipeline.

10 Signs Your Lead Scoring Is Pure Fiction

Sales ignores your "hot leads"
You can't explain why each criterion has its point value
High-scoring leads rarely convert
Your best customers had low scores
You keep "tweaking" the model
Sales has their own "real" scoring
The model has never been validated against actual buyers
You score activity, not intent
Competitors and students score highest
Nobody can explain what the score actually means

The 90-Day Lead Reality Revolution

From Scoring Fantasy to Buying Reality

Days 1-30: The Audit

  • Analyze your last 100 closed deals
  • What was their lead score?
  • What did they actually do before buying?
  • Interview sales about real buying patterns
  • Find the disconnect between scores and sales

Days 31-60: The Rebuild

  • Identify actual buying signals from analysis
  • Throw out demographic scoring
  • Focus on buying committee behavior
  • Track problem-specific engagement
  • Build simple signal-based routing

Days 61-90: The Validation

  • Route based on signals, not scores
  • Track sales acceptance rates
  • Measure conversion improvement
  • Iterate based on actual outcomes
  • Kill the old model forever

Stop scoring leads. Start recognizing buyers.

The Choice: Scoring Theater or Buying Reality?

Every lead you score wrong is a deal you lose.

 

The 20% who focus on buying signals close deals. The 80% perfecting scores close spreadsheets.

The Bottom Line

Lead scoring is astrology for marketers.

 

You're looking at meaningless patterns and pretending they predict the future. Your buyers aren't points on a spreadsheet. They're humans with problems, timelines, and budgets.

Revenue Marketing leaders have abandoned the scoring fantasy for buying reality. They don't calculate who might buy. They recognize who is buying.

Stop scoring. Start selling.

Kill Your Scoring Model. Find Your Buyers.

Learn how Revenue Marketing leaders identify real buying signals, not arbitrary points